Lesson 7: Design of Experiments:
plaY what if...
plaY what if...
Mukul Mehta, Cleveland, Ohio
In the last lesson, Lesson 6: Design of Experiments: Optimize, you learned the basic concepts of optimization and how to use these ideas systematically.
In this lesson, you will learn how to " plaY what if..." (Note: the capitalization of Y is intentional; it is the Y in DEPLOY DOE!)
Why "plaY what if..."
If you have been in industry for a while, you will recognize several scenarios in which you participated in "What if ..." Here are a few:Customer Questions Joe Smith, a customer, calls, and talks to me about a technical problem.
Our conversation goes something like this:
"Mukul, we have been buying ready-to-bake cheesecake for our bakeries for two years. And, they have worked very well. We are very happy with the product. We just started a new bakery in Alaska. It is very cold there. The heat loss from our ovens is higher than we would like. We think we will have to bake at higher temperature than the recommended baking temperature of 350 deg F. Can you tell us what would happen if we bake at 375 deg F instead of 350 deg F?
How do we answer the customer's question?
- Option 1: "I do not know."
- Option 2: "Let me guess..."
- Option 3: "Hmmm... that is an interesting question. What we would like to do is run a few experiments in our lab, find the answers, and get back to you. Since I need to talk to the R&D lab manager and schedule the experiments, it may take us a week or two. When do you need this? Can I get back to you in a week or two?"
- Option 4: "Hmmm... that is an interesting question. Let me open the Cheesecake project and play What if ..., I might be able to answer your question precisely, quantitatively and predictively, in one minute or less."
- Customer?
- Tech Support Manager?
- Technology Development Manager?
Which option would you like, if you were the:
In your work, in real life, have you answered the question precisely, quantitatively and predictively, in one minute or less? If not, why not?
What system do you need to use Option 4 in order to answer quantitatively and predictively, in one minute or less?
To read the rest of the tutorial sign up at www.DesignOfExperiments.co.in
Take care.
Mukul Mehta
Mukul Mehta & Associates
25797 Briarwood Court
Cleveland, Ohio, 44145 USA
Phone: 440-808-6700 deg Fax: 440-808-6767
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